Standard Chartered Delays $2T Stablecoin Forecast to 2030 Amid Shifting Market Dynamics
Vexoda Newsroom
Standard Chartered has pushed its $2 trillion stablecoin market capitalization forecast to 2030, citing increased transaction velocity rather than new supply growth. The bank highlighted distinct mark
Global financial institution Standard Chartered has revised its outlook for the stablecoin market, now projecting it to reach a $2 trillion valuation by the year 2030. This represents a two-year delay from its previous forecast, with the bank observing that while the overall market capitalization has plateaued around $309 billion, the frequency of transactions involving existing stablecoins has significantly increased. This suggests a growing utility and circulation of stablecoins rather than a surge in newly issued tokens driving market expansion.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, emphasized that the growth in stablecoin usage is evident despite slower supply increases. He pointed to four distinct market segments, each with its own competitive landscape. Tether's USDt (USDT) is noted for its dominance in emerging market savings, while Circle's USDC (USDC) has taken the lead in developed market payment applications. Both USDC and Ethena's USDe are performing strongly in cryptocurrency trading, and USDC also leads in the nascent but growing market for transactions involving artificial intelligence agents.
The report highlights that the most vigorous competition is anticipated within the developed market payments sector. This area is seeing the emergence of alternative solutions from various challengers, including USDG, M^0, and multi-bank stablecoin networks, all vying to disrupt existing payment infrastructures. A key factor in determining market share among these competitors will likely be how issuers and payment networks decide to distribute the yield generated from the reserves backing their stablecoins.
Standard Chartered's adjusted forecast arrives at a time when significant regulatory and accounting developments are unfolding in the United States, potentially influencing corporate adoption of stablecoins. Following the passage of the GENIUS Act, regulators have proposed new rules concerning stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements, and consumer protections. Notably, proposals from the FDIC suggest stablecoin holders may not receive pass-through deposit insurance, while the Treasury Department is moving towards licensing requirements for stablecoin issuers, expected to take effect in January 2027.
Further impacting the landscape, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) has proposed an update that could alter how companies account for certain stablecoins on their balance sheets. Industry participants, such as blockchain payment company Tempo, suggest these proposed accounting changes might simplify the process for businesses looking to utilize stablecoins for payments and settlements. This regulatory and accounting clarity could remove potential hurdles and encourage broader business adoption in the future.
Traders and market observers will be closely monitoring the competitive dynamics within the developed market payments sector, particularly how yield strategies are implemented by stablecoin issuers. Additionally, the progression of US regulatory frameworks and accounting standard updates will be crucial in shaping the operational environment for stablecoins. The interplay between these factors will likely dictate the pace of future market growth and the dominant players in the evolving stablecoin ecosystem.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.