Bitcoin’s Bottom Uncertain as Analysts Split on Market Outlook
Vexoda Newsroom
While some analysts believe Bitcoin may have reached its cycle bottom around $64k, others see further downside risk. The market's integration with traditional finance and structural changes are key fa
Bitcoin’s recent performance has sparked a lively debate among analysts regarding whether it has hit its bottom for this cycle. Currently trading at approximately $63,027 per coin, Bitcoin is down nearly 50% from its peak of over $126k in October 2025.
The market's trajectory was driven by ETF inflows and institutional demand following the halving event that year. However, since then, the trend has been consistently downward, with analysts divided on whether this marks a definitive bottom or if further declines are likely.
On one side of the debate, Standard Chartered and other bullish institutions argue that structural demand from ETFs and treasury companies could prevent deeper drawdowns. In contrast, Russell Thomson at Hilbert Capital believes Bitcoin is still in its downcycle, predicting it will revisit lows around $52k before potentially dropping to as low as $40-45k.
Thomson's view reflects a broader shift where Bitcoin’s behavior has become more closely tied to global macroeconomic conditions. He argues that institutional capital makes the cryptocurrency sensitive to global liquidity and policy shifts, rather than insulating it from such factors.
On the other hand, André Dragosch at Bitwise sees the current environment as indicative of late-stage bear market characteristics but cautions against declaring a definitive bottom yet. Sentiment has deteriorated significantly, reminiscent of post-FTX collapse levels in 2022, suggesting potential seller fatigue and limited downside risk.
The integration of Bitcoin into traditional financial markets is another key factor influencing this debate. Citibank analysts have noted increased correlation with risk assets due to ETFs and macro liquidity conditions, reducing historical cycle indicators' reliability.
Traders should closely monitor upcoming Fed rate decisions and the potential passage of the CLARITY Act, which could influence market sentiment. Additionally, off-chain trading volumes and institutional participation levels will provide critical insights into whether Bitcoin's current price holds as a true bottom or if further adjustments are necessary.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.