Key Bitcoin Buy Signal Points to Potential End of Bear Market
Vexoda Newsroom
A crucial supply metric for Bitcoin has issued its first 'buy' signal since November 2022, suggesting the end of a long bear market. However, analysts warn that more conditions must be met before this
In early July 2026, cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler Jr., contributing to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, reported that Bitcoin’s Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio had generated its first 'buy' signal in nearly four years. This metric measures the proportion of BTC supply which has last moved in profit or loss and dropped into negative territory before rebounding above a critical threshold.
This buy signal is significant as it aligns with historical patterns that often precede bear market bottoms, drawing comparisons to November 2022 when Bitcoin experienced its previous bottom. However, Adler cautioned that this alone does not confirm the end of the current bear market; supply being held at a loss remains relatively low compared to past cycles.
Adler forecasted that for confirmation, the ratio would need to hold above zero while price is rising. Additionally, he predicted that the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of supply in loss should reach its target within two months. Until then, he suggested treating capitulation as a process rather than an event completed.
While this signal suggests potential buyer exhaustion and could indicate market inflection points, analysts like Darkfost at CryptoQuant pointed out that it does not guarantee higher prices or the end of the bear market. Instead, they emphasized the need for renewed demand to drive a bullish rebound.
The broader implications are significant as Bitcoin traders await confirmation signals before considering a shift in strategy from selling into buying. The current environment remains challenging due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and continued downward pressure on BTC prices.
Traders should closely monitor price movements, supply metrics, and overall market sentiment for signs of renewed demand that could signal the start of a new bull cycle.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.