Grayscale's head of research, Zach Pandl, argues that Bitcoin may have bottomed earlier than the traditional four-year cycle. This could indicate a September or October low and suggests macroeconomic
According to Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, Bitcoin (BTC) might have already reached its bottom before the expected traditional four-year cycle trough in late 2026. Pandl posits that macroeconomic factors, particularly Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and economic growth trends, are now significantly influencing BTC's price action.
Pandl’s analysis is based on the idea that Bitcoin has 'grown up' as an asset class, moving away from speculative bubbles towards a more mature market driven by broader economic conditions. He suggests that if the Fed does not raise interest rates and economic growth remains robust, this could signal that BTC's bottom may have already occurred.
This perspective comes amid other indicators pointing to potential bottoms in the crypto markets. Crypto brokerage K33 noted earlier in July that over 50% of Bitcoin’s supply was held at a loss, which historically precedes market bottoms. Additionally, Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten highlighted record levels of long-term investor holdings as another sign.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a wildcard. Pandl cautions that if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, it could lead to further deleveraging by strategy and treasury companies, potentially causing BTC prices to drop moderately further. Conversely, other analysts like Jiang Zhuoer predict a later bottom in October or December 2026.
The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 29 is closely watched as market participants currently anticipate a 66% chance of no change in rates. This event could either confirm Pandl’s early bottom theory if rates remain unchanged, or push the market lower if there are unexpected changes.
While this analysis provides insight into potential near-term movements, it's crucial for traders to monitor ongoing macroeconomic indicators and regulatory developments closely. The broader implications suggest that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a speculative asset towards one more influenced by traditional economic factors.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.