Bitcoin's Countdown to Next Bottom Nears: Key Metrics Signal Bear Market End
Vexoda Newsroom
Bitcoin’s supply in loss passed the 50% mark nearly two months ago, signaling a potential near-term bottom. Analysts predict strong returns post-bottom and highlight other market metrics indicating th
In early June 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) saw its supply in loss reach 50%, marking a significant milestone that has historically preceded macro bottoms during previous bear markets. This event is part of an ongoing countdown to what many predict will be the next trough for BTC.
According to K33 Research, once this threshold was crossed, it took no more than 101 days for Bitcoin prices to hit their bottom in prior bear cycles. While this year’s window has already lasted 42 days since June 5th, making it one of the longest on record, the countdown remains active.
Additional data from CryptoQuant supports these predictions. The realized cap variance (RCV) model currently sits at -2.35, indicating a compressed cost basis and suggesting that emotional premiums built during rallies have largely been priced out. Historically, such low RCV readings precede significant rebounds in the market by over 75% within a year.
Axel Adler Jr., from CryptoQuant, noted earlier this month that supply in loss was around two months away from levels associated with bear-market bottoms. As of July 17th, it stood at approximately 46%, leaving traders to watch closely for further signs of market bottoming out.
The combination of these metrics suggests a strong likelihood that the current bear cycle is nearing its end. However, while these indicators are valuable, they do not guarantee specific price movements or timing. Traders should remain vigilant and prepare for potential volatility as markets transition from bear to bull territory.
Going forward, traders will need to monitor supply in loss levels closely, alongside other key metrics like RCV, to gauge the health of the market and anticipate potential rebounds. The next few weeks could be crucial in determining whether this is indeed the bottom or if further declines are likely.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.