Analyst Warns Bitcoin Could Drop Further After Worst June Since 2022
Vexoda Newsroom
A crypto analyst predicts further downside for Bitcoin, citing its close below the 200-week moving average but above realized price. Traders should watch potential bottom formation and market cycles.
In a recent analysis, PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model, warned that Bitcoin could face additional downward pressure after experiencing its worst June performance since 2022. The cryptocurrency fell by 20.5% in June to close at $58,526, below its 200-week moving average ($62,000) but above its realized price of $52,000.
PlanB noted that all previous bear market bottoms were below the realized price and predicted Bitcoin could drop further. The current situation suggests a potential bear bottom is still ahead, with some analysts predicting prices might fall to as low as $52,000 from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2022.
Bitcoin’s realized price represents the average cost basis for coins currently in circulation. This metric serves as a crucial support level during bear markets and is calculated by valuing each unspent transaction output (UTXO) at its last on-chain movement. Analysts like Andri Fauzan Adziima from Bitrue Research Institute suggested that late 2026 could see a capitulation, leading to the next market cycle.
Midterm elections in November might also play a role, with Benjamin Cowen of ITC Crypto speculating on a possible cycle bottom this year. Previous bear markets have seen significant drops, such as an 83% decline in 2018 and a 76% drop in 2022, making the current scenario particularly concerning for traders.
Despite being undervalued according to PlanB’s analysis, Bitcoin could still fall further. The consolidation near $60,000 is seen as a potential bottom zone, with strong support forming around the $55,000 level if prices continue to decline. Traders should remain cautious and monitor these levels closely.
The broader implications suggest that while Bitcoin might be undervalued now, further downward pressure could still occur. This scenario highlights the importance of staying informed about market cycles, technical support levels, and potential capitulation points during bear markets.
Source: Cointelegraph. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.