Despite a supposed reopening and calls for an extended truce, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, raising concerns about future oil supply disruptions.
In recent weeks, there has been little change in vessel transit numbers through the Strait of Hormuz. On average, around 30 to 40 vessels per day have passed through, with crude oil tankers still limited to single-digit counts.
According to various ship tracking sources, this figure may be even lower due to a 'shadow fleet' that isn't accounted for in official numbers, suggesting the situation remains tense. The number of VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) passing through is significantly below pre-war levels, with current traffic estimated at only 20% to 30% of what it was before the conflict began.
The US and Iran have called for an extended truce this week as negotiations take a pause. President Trump has stated that both sides are taking a 'break' until funeral ceremonies conclude. However, this delay is essentially kicking the can down the road, with no significant changes on the ground.
Iran plans to impose fees on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, adding another layer of uncertainty and cost for global shipping. The current calm in oil prices masks underlying concerns about potential supply disruptions if tensions flare up again.
While the situation appears stable now, the reality is that depleting inventories are keeping oil markets relatively quiet. Eventually, this facade will break as the true impact of reduced transit through the Strait becomes evident. For traders and investors, the key question remains: when will the market react to these ongoing issues?
For those betting on lower oil prices, there's hope that Iran might finally break and allow full passage again. However, so far, this hasn't materialized after two weeks of supposed 'reopening.' The situation is tense and volatile, with potential for significant market disruptions if tensions escalate.
Source: InvestingLive. Summarized and rewritten by the Vexoda Newsroom. This is market news, not financial advice.